Breaking down the US Electoral College system

Yesterday, Joe Biden was ‘called’ as the winner of the US Presidential election, as soon as it was certain that he would win at least 270 seats in the ‘electoral college’. The US media outlets who ‘called’ the election in favor of Joe Biden focused solely on whether he was definitely winning 270 electoral college seats, and did not focus on whether he had won a simple majority of the total number of votes cast.

So, what exactly is this electoral college system, and why is the election not decided simply by determining which candidate receives more national votes in total? In this post, we shall discuss certain features of the electoral college system, which shall help us understand the election result better.

Let us begin by discussing certain essential features of the electoral college system, along with some relevant stats:

• The total number of seats in the electoral college is 538. These 538 seats are divided and allocated amongst every State in the US. The allocation of seats is done on the basis of the population of each State. For instance, as California is the State with the largest population, it has 55 seats in the electoral college – which is more than any other State. On the other hand, Delaware and Hawaii have only 3 seats each in the electoral college, as their population is significantly less when compared to a large State like California. The number of seats in the electoral college also equals the number of representatives a State sends to the US Congress (i.e. the House of Representatives and the Senate).

• The presidential candidate who wins more votes in a particular State wins all the seats of that State’s electoral college. For instance, as Joe Biden received more votes than Donald Trump in California, he won all the 55 electoral college seats. This system of granting all electoral college seats to the winning candidate is known as the ‘winner-takes-all’ system. 

• As there are a total of 538 electoral college seats, a candidate has to win at least 270 seats to be elected as the President. Now, a candidate can win 270 seats based on the number of States where he receives a majority of the vote. Hence, the outcome is decided based on the number of seats won, and not by whether the candidate receives more of the total national vote.

• This implies that a candidate can win the presidential election even if he does not win the total national vote, but wins at least 270 electoral college seats. This happened in the 2016 presidential election, where Donald Trump lost the total national vote, but still won 306 seats of the electoral college. Hillary Clinton received a total of 2.9 million more votes than Donald Trump. But, she lost the election as she could only win 232 electoral college seats. This is one of the main reasons why the electoral college system has been criticized – as a candidate can win the election even if he loses the total national popular vote.

• Apart from 2016, there have been 4 other instances where a candidate won the election even after losing the total national vote. In 2000, George Bush Jr. won the election even though Al Gore, the Democratic presidential nominee, won the popular vote. In fact, George Bush Jr won the State of Florida by a small margin of 537 votes, and became President only after the United States Supreme Court barred the State of Florida from recounting the votes! A small margin can hence determine the difference between victory and defeat – irrespective of which candidate wins a simple majority of the total national vote.

Source: TheConversation.com

‘Swing States’

Now, most States in the US vote consistently for either the Democrats or the Republicans. For instance, as California has consistently voted for the Democratic Party, it is categorized as a ‘Blue State’. On the other hand, as Texas is a stronghold of the Republican party, it is categorized as a ‘Red State’. There are only a handful of ‘Swing States’, where there is a greater possibility of the vote swinging between the Democratic and Republican candidates.

In this election, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and Georgia were considered as the major swing States, where the vote could swing between either of the parties. Arizona and Georgia were late entrants to this list, as both of these States have also traditionally voted for the Republican Party in the past.

The presence of these swing States also throws light on the campaigning patterns of the presidential candidates, and why they spent a disproportionate amount of time campaigning in the Swing States. While Biden and Trump barely visited California or Texas (where the outcome was certain), they spent considerable amount of time in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida – where the vote could shift in small, but decisive margins.

In 2016, Donald Trump managed to cross the 270-barrier only after he won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by very small margins. Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by only 44,292 votes, and won Wisconsin by an even smaller margin of 22,748 votes. Even in the current election, Joe Biden is likely to win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by a small margin of approximately 40,000 votes each.

The presence of such swing States with small victory margins leads to a situation where certain States get a greater weightage in determining the outcome of the Presidential election. If the electoral college is abolished, the candidate who wins a simple majority of the total national votes can be directly adjudged as the winner. This would directly reduce the disproportionate significance that a handful of Swing States have, in determining the outcome of the election. For this reason, there have been multiple demands for a constitutional amendment to abolish the electoral college system.

But how did such a system originate in the first place?

The historical origins of the electoral college system

The United States Constitution was drafted at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia, which took place between May 25 and September 17, 1787. The framers of the Constitution decided to allocate a specific number of electoral college seats to each State – based on its population. The number of electoral college seats allocated would also be equal to the number of representatives that the State would send to the US Congress.

While the Constitution was being drafted and debated, a majority of America’s white citizens lived in cities such as Boston and Philadelphia – which are in the North. As the Northern States had a higher population of Whites – they would be allotted a higher number of seats in the electoral college. The Southern States (such as Alabama and Texas) had less Whites when compared to the North. But, a majority of African-Americans, who were slaves and were treated as the ‘property’ of their ‘owners’ – stayed in these Southern States. The Northern States had a very small proportion of African Americans.

As African-Americans were considered to be the ‘property’ of their ‘owners’ – they did not have voting rights, and were not treated as equal citizens. But, the Southern States wanted them to be included while calculating the total population of a State, as an increase in that number would grant them more seats in the electoral college. The Northern States rejected this demand.

This stalemate led to the ‘three-fifths compromise’ – which was codified in Article 1, Section 2 of the US Constitution. As per the ‘three-fifths compromise’ – every African-American would be considered as ‘three-fifths’ (60%) of a White person. Hence, as an example, for every 100 African-Americans, the State’s population would be deemed to increase by 60. This significantly increased the number of seats Southern States received in the electoral college. The practice of slavery, where Blacks were treated as property and not as human beings – is one of the founding pillars of this electoral college system.

In 1816, a formal proposal was moved before the US Congress for the first time – to elect the President by determining the winner of the national popular vote, and abolish the electoral college system. This proposal was shot down by Senators from the Southern States - who felt that this would reduce the influence that Southern States had in the electoral process.

In 1969, the House of Representatives voted in favor of a constitutional amendment to dismantle the electoral college system. But, this amendment could not pass the Senate as a bipartisan consensus could not be achieved. The electoral college system, conceptualized in the dark era of slavery, has hence survived the test of two centuries, while 270 continues to be the magic number.

Postscript: While we discuss the US elections, it is significant to note that African-American men were conferred the right to vote only in 1870, 5 years after the practice of slavery was abolished. Also, all adult women got the right to vote only in 1920, after the 19^th Amendment to the US Constitution was ratified. For a Constitution that was drafted in 1787 and ratified in 1789, it took more than 130 years of effort to achieve equal voting rights, even on paper.